CRE This Week - What's impacting the United States market?
October 6, 2025 - US commercial real estate news, macroeconomic indicators and market analysis.
Week of October 6, 2025
Welcome to the latest edition of CRE This Week, curated by Altus Group’s US research team.
Our team has handpicked pertinent and noteworthy market indicators, articles, original research, and significant industry dates that are critical to the US commercial real estate sector. We understand that your time is valuable, so we're excited to deliver research that helps you stay informed and saves you some time each Monday morning.
For more key economic indicators that matter to commercial real estate, see Top Indicators by Major Asset Type.
Economic print
Macro economic factors impacting CRE
S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
The S&P Cotality (Formerly CoreLogic) Case-Shiller Indices for July were released on September 30. U.S. home prices in edged up just 1.7% year-over-year nationally, with the 20-City Composite rising 1.8% and the 10-City Composite up 2.3%. After seasonal adjustment, the National Index fell 0.1% month-over-month, marking the second consecutive monthly decline.
According to the release, national price growth continues to lag consumer inflation, marking three straight months of real housing wealth erosion. However, regional results were mixed: New York (+6.4%), Chicago (+6.2%), and Cleveland (+4.5%) posted solid gains, while Tampa (–2.8%), San Francisco (–1.9%), and Miami (–1.3%) slipped into decline. The markets seeing the strongest growth tend to be those where new single-family construction has been scarce. But that matters for multifamily, as many of these metros also have thin rental pipelines, and with more households likely to stay renters, steady demand may give owners breathing room to raise rents.
Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on September 30 that U.S. job openings edged up in August to 7.23 million from 7.21 million in July, while hiring fell by 114,000 to 5.13 million. Quits also declined, signaling reduced worker confidence, while layoffs fell by 62,000 to 1.73 million, highlighting employers’ reluctance to cut staff despite softer demand.
The August JOLTS data shows a labor market that is still cooling without collapsing. Job openings remain elevated relative to pre-pandemic rates, but weaker hiring and fewer quits suggest both employers and workers are growing more cautious. For CRE, this may cut both ways. Slower churn in the labor market could help ease wage pressures, giving owners some relief on expenses, but softer hiring momentum also means less fuel for demand in office, retail, industrial, and hospitality. Importantly, this will be the last report from the BLS until the government shutdown is resolved, leaving markets without timely updates on a key part of the economy.
The Conference Board released the Consumer Confidence Index on September 30, showing a decline for the second consecutive month, falling 3.6 points to 94.2, its lowest level since April. The Present Situation Index dropped 7 points to 125.4 as views of business conditions and job availability weakened, with job availability now at its lowest in years. The Expectations Index edged down 1.3 points to 73.4, marking the eighth straight month below the 80 threshold that often signals recession risk. Inflation references in survey responses climbed back to the top concern, even as 12-month expectations eased slightly to 5.8%. Purchasing plans diverged, with auto demand softening, vacation intentions falling to a five-month low, but homebuying plans rising to a four-month high.
Confidence is sliding as households report weaker finances and labor conditions, but the data show nuances relevant to real estate. More pessimism on jobs and business conditions could weigh on discretionary categories like retail, hospitality, and office demand. Yet the uptick in homebuying intentions and the ongoing affordability squeeze may reinforce multifamily demand, while household reliance on big-ticket goods and essential retail remains steady. For CRE capital markets, the persistent sub-80 expectations reading adds to the case that caution will linger, keeping tenants selective and investors wary even as Fed rate cuts begin to filter through.
ADP National Employment Report
ADP and the Stanford Digital Economy Lab released the National Employment Report for September on October 1. According to the report, private sector payrolls fell by 32,000, the sharpest decline since early 2023. Goods-producing industries managed a small gain, but most major service categories, including leisure and hospitality, financial services, and professional/business services, posted losses. Hiring weakness was most pronounced among small and medium-sized businesses, while large firms added about 33,000 positions. Wage growth also eased, with job-changers seeing pay up 6.6% year-over-year, down from 7.1% in August, and job-stayers holding steady at 4.5%.
The release carries added weight this month because the Bureau of Labor Statistics did not publish its Employment Situation report on October 3 due to the government shutdown. The ADP figures, showing weakness in private hiring, reinforce recent public data that already pointed to slowing job creation and rising unemployment. For commercial real estate, softer labor conditions raise the risk of weaker demand across office, retail, and housing at a time when financing remains tight. With official government data delayed, market participants, lenders, and owners will need to lean more heavily on private surveys such as ADP’s to gauge the economy’s direction in the weeks ahead.
News
News to know
The long-running decline of American malls is opening doors for small businesses to step into prime retail locations once dominated by national chains. Shopping center vacancy rose to 5.8% in Q2 2025, per Cushman & Wakefield, as store closures and softer demand eased rent pressures. That shift has allowed entrepreneurs ranging from wellness practitioners to gourmet food shops to negotiate better lease terms, including flexibility on rent and shorter commitments. While landlords still face risk—half of small businesses shutter within six years—many are experimenting with concessions like partial build-outs, revenue-sharing, or pop-up programs to keep centers active. For communities, the trend is reshaping vacant space into more localized, service-oriented offerings, though outcomes vary sharply by geography and landlord strategy.
[NYC] Mayor advances $1.8B to speed up housing projects | The Real Deal, September 29, 2025
With just three months left in his tenure, Mayor Eric Adams is squeezing as much housing as possible into his remaining time. A day after ending his re-election bid, the mayor announced he is shifting $1.8 billion from future capital budgets to this fiscal year for affordable housing projects. The official rationale is not to burnish his housing legacy, but to take advantage of a new federal law that makes more projects eligible for low-income housing tax credits. Previously, projects that use LIHTC had to be at least 50 percent funded by them, a threshold many could not reach. This summer, Congress reduced the minimum to 25 percent. But to take advantage of those credits, affordable housing developers still typically need public money to pencil out. That is where the city’s Department of Housing Preservation and Development and Housing Development Corporation come in. Of the $1.8 billion being advanced from future years, $1.5 billion will go for this purpose.
Few, if any, places in the U.S. are feeling the effects of the immigration-policy change more acutely than Doral, Florida where about 40% of its 80,000 residents were born in Venezuela or are of Venezuelan descent. Some Venezuelans have lived here for decades, eventually becoming American citizens and having American-born children. Others are more-recent arrivals who built lives here over the past few years under the government’s temporary programs. Some of the Trump administration’s efforts have been thwarted by an appeals court, but many immigrants are leaving anyway, uncertain whether they will be allowed to stay. Vacancy rates for apartments in municipalities surrounding Doral are 4.3%. In Doral, that rate has ticked up to 6.5% from 5.6% late last year. In certain Doral buildings, the vacancy rate is much higher—more than 10% in some cases. Leasing agents at the buildings say the vacancies are driven by Venezuelans who have fled. Rents in Doral have dropped to their lowest level in three years.
Homeowners struggling to sell are increasingly turning into “accidental landlords,” adding fresh rental supply that is pressuring institutional single-family operators. Of the 3.06 million homes listed this summer, just 28% sold, leaving nearly 2 million on the market. Many owners chose to rent instead, with 2.3% of listed homes converting to rentals, and the share topping 5% in some Sunbelt markets. This shift is slowing rent growth: John Burns Research & Consulting expects rents in the top 20 markets to rise just 0.8% this year, the weakest since 2011. Firms like Invitation Homes and American Homes 4 Rent are leaning on in-place rent increases to offset weaker pricing for new leases, but the gap risks fueling turnover. With sales stuck at 1990s levels and shadow inventory building, even healthy renter demand may not be enough to keep landlords from feeling the squeeze.
CRE capital raising on pace to surpass pre-pandemic records | GlobeSt, September 30, 2025
A new Cushman & Wakefield report says capital is flowing back into U.S. CRE as fundamentals and lending improve. Office availability is easing, industrial is helped by less speculative building, and multifamily vacancy is edging lower, while loan originations rose more than 30 percent year over year in the first half, supporting a rebound in sales and stabilizing pricing. Private equity fundraising is on pace for about 129 billion dollars this year, which would top 2019 outside the unusual peaks of 2021 and 2022, with large closes including Brookfield at 16 billion and Carlyle at 9 billion, and Blackstone’s BREIT pulling in 1.1 billion in its best quarter in two and a half years. Public REITs have leaned into debt markets, with trailing 12-month unsecured secondary offerings reaching 48 billion dollars in the second quarter. Investors continue to favor multifamily and industrial, several of the largest new vehicles target data centers, and real estate debt funds have raised more than 20 billion dollars for North America so far, the second strongest year on record, signaling growing confidence that conditions are turning a corner.
Trump unleashes new lumber and cabinet tariffs, sparking cost worries | GlobeSt, October 1, 2025
The administration has imposed a 10% tariff on imported softwood timber and lumber and a 25% tariff on kitchen cabinets and vanities, set to rise to 50% in January. With the U.S. still dependent on foreign lumber, higher costs are expected to ripple through construction, particularly in multifamily where projects may face delays or re-underwriting. Developers are seeking alternate suppliers but warn of longer lead times, while wildfire rebuilding will add further price pressure. The result is higher input costs, slower schedules, and firmer pricing for existing assets.
Once a fragmented niche, industrial outdoor storage (IOS) is rapidly drawing institutional capital. Newmark researchers highlight zoning and environmental hurdles but note that barriers to new supply and chronic truck-parking shortages keep rents resilient. Portfolio aggregation and standardized leasing have improved transparency, helping IOS evolve into a recognized industrial subtype. Demand tied to e-commerce, infrastructure and manufacturing, plus the rise of IOS-focused REITs, points to growing institutionalization over the next decade.
Rick Perry-founded energy REIT clocks $683M IPO, shares surge | Bisnow, October 2, 2025
Fermi, the Amarillo-based energy REIT co-founded by former U.S. Energy Secretary Rick Perry and Quantum Energy Partners’ Toby Neugebauer, raised $682.5M in its IPO last week, with shares jumping 55% from the $21 offering price to close at $32.53 on the first day of trading. The company, launched in January, has yet to generate revenue and reported a $6.4M loss in its first six months, but investors are betting on its ambitious Project Matador, a planned 6,000-acre hybrid energy and data campus outside Amarillo that aims to be the world’s largest of its kind. The strong debut highlights investor appetite for infrastructure plays tied to artificial intelligence and data centers, signaling how capital is increasingly moving toward energy-intensive CRE sectors.
Deloitte’s 2026 CRE outlook shows cautious optimism, with sentiment easing to 65 from last year’s 68 but well above the 2023 low. Nearly three-quarters of executives plan to boost investment and most expect revenue growth, though capital availability, interest rates, and tax policy remain top concerns. Deloitte notes refinancing pressures on legacy loans but stronger terms for new originations, where volume is up sharply and private credit is playing a bigger role. Data centers, logistics, and multifamily lead investment opportunities, while select office assets show renewed potential.
INSIGHTS Spotlight
Catch the latest research and insights from Altus
Podcast | From jobs to housing to the human edge in CRE
New home sales are up 20%, inflation creeps higher, and labor markets are paradoxical, yet CRE opportunities persist. Also in this episode, Daniel Kudrik, MAI CRE, Senior Director of Valuation Advisory Services at Altus, shares his perspectives on property residual values, data transparency, and the human edge in real estate.
Insight article | AI at the forefront of proptech
Our Senior Director of Research, Omar Eltorai, attended Blueprint 2025 and shares his key takeaways on how AI is moving from buzzword to real impact in CRE. Efficiency, data integrity, and sustainable advantage matter most.
Important dates
Upcoming data releases and events
Data releases (Times in EST)
Tuesday, Oct 7
8:30 AM: U.S. Trade Deficit
3:00 PM: Consumer Credit
Thursday, October 9
10:00 AM: Wholesale Inventories
Friday, October 10
10:00 AM: Consumer Sentiment (preliminary)
Upcoming industry events
October 6 – October 7: NAIOP I.Con Cold Storage
October 19 – October 22: MBA Annual Convention and Expo
October 22 – October 24: PREA Institutional Investor Conference
October 27 – October 30: NCREIF Fall Conference
About our research team
Omar Eltorai
Research Director
Altus Group
Omar Eltorai is a Research Director at Altus Group. With more than a decade of experience in the industry in investment management and financing roles,
Omar's focus is on macro, capital and market trends affecting the US CRE market. Beyond regularly authoring articles and reports, his commentary and analysis has been featured in various media publications, including: Wall Street Journal, Globe Street, and Yahoo! Finance.
Cole Perry
Associate Director of Research
Altus Group
Cole Perry is a Associate Director of Research with Altus Group's Research team. In this role, Cole delivers key insights into macroeconomics, capital markets, and the broader commercial real estate sector.
Cole boasts a rich background in Commercial Real Estate analytics with previous roles at CompStak and Brixmor Property Group. He holds dual M.S. degrees from Columbia University in Urban Planning and Real Estate Development.
Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this newsletter are solely those of the authors and are not endorsed by Altus Group Limited, its affiliates and its related entities (collectively “Altus Group”). This publication has been prepared for general guidance on matters of interest only and does not constitute professional advice or services of Altus Group. You should not act upon the information contained in this publication without obtaining specific professional advice. No representation or warranty (express or implied) is given as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in this publication, or the suitability of the information for a particular purpose. To the extent permitted by law, Altus Group does not accept or assume any liability, responsibility or duty of care for any consequences of you or anyone else acting, or refraining to act, in reliance on the information contained in this publication or for any decision based on it. The distribution of this publication to you does not create, extend or revive a client relationship between Altus Group and you or any other person or entity. This publication, or any part thereof, may not be reproduced or distributed in any form for any purpose without the express written consent of Altus Group.
Resources
Latest insights
