CRE This Week - What's impacting the United States market?
September 21, 2026 - US commercial real estate news, macroeconomic indicators and market analysis.
Week of September 21, 2026
Welcome to the latest edition of CRE This Week, curated by Altus Group’s US research team.
Our team has handpicked pertinent and noteworthy market indicators, articles, original research, and significant industry dates that are critical to the US commercial real estate sector. We understand that your time is valuable, so we're excited to deliver research that helps you stay informed and saves you some time each Monday morning.
For more key economic indicators that matter to commercial real estate, see Top Indicators by Major Asset Type.
Economic print
Macro economic factors impacting CRE
The U.S. Census Bureau released its advance estimate of retail and food services sales for August on September 16, showing total spending of $773.9 billion, up 1.2 percent month over month (±0.4 percent, a statistically significant change) and up 6.0 percent year over year. July's initially reported 0.6 percent monthly decline was revised to a smaller 0.5 percent decline. These figures are nominal and not adjusted for inflation. With headline CPI at 3.4 percent year over year in August, real retail sales growth is closer to 2.6 percent. Gasoline stations posted the largest nominal gain at 21.0 percent annually, but pump prices rose roughly 27 to 28 percent over the same period, meaning real sales volume at gasoline stations likely declined even as dollar sales climbed.
Once adjusted for inflation, headline retail strength narrows considerably. Nonstore retailers' 9.9 percent nominal annual gain still clears CPI and points to genuine volume growth supporting last-mile logistics and infill industrial demand. But gasoline-anchored and grocery-anchored retail, both categories favored for their defensive characteristics, are likely showing real sales contraction once price effects are stripped out. That argues for conservative sales-per-square-foot assumptions at fuel and grocery-anchored centers even where nominal tenant sales look healthy.
FOMC Interest Rate Decision and the Summary of Economic Projections
The Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate 25 basis points to 3.75% to 4.00% on September 16, its first hike since 2023 and a reversal from the cutting cycle that ran through most of 2025. The vote was unanimous, 12-0. The Committee cited elevated inflation and resilient domestic spending, noting productivity growth is strong and job gains have kept pace with the workforce. The updated Summary of Economic Projections shows the median federal funds rate path revised up sharply from June, with 2026 year-end projections at 4.1% versus 3.8% previously, and 2027 at 4.1% versus 3.6%. Core PCE inflation is now projected at 3.4% for 2026, up from 3.3% in June, with the median not returning to the 2% target until 2029.
For CRE, the hike raises borrowing costs at a moment when many owners had priced in further easing. Floating-rate borrowers and near-term refinancings face renewed pressure, and the upward revision to the funds rate path pushes out the timeline for meaningful relief. With inflation projections also revised higher, cap rate compression is likely to stall, and underwriting assumptions built around a 2026 easing cycle will need to be revisited.
New Residential Construction and the NAHB Housing Market Index
The Census Bureau and HUD released the August 2026 New Residential Construction report on September 17. Total housing starts came in at a SAAR of 1.275 million, down 2.6% from July's revised 1.309 million and down 1.2% from a year earlier; neither move is statistically significant. Single-family starts rose 7.6% to 918,000, while multifamily starts fell to 344,000. Permits declined 2.7% to 1.394 million but held 3.5% above year-ago levels. Completions dropped 11.9% month over month to 1.128 million and were down 27.1% year over year. Separately, the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index fell three points to 32 in September, the lowest since September 2025, with sales expectations down six points to 37 and builder incentives widening to 66%.
The completions drop shows the multifamily pipeline contraction underway for over a year is now hitting deliveries, as starts and units under construction have both been declining since late 2025. The NAHB reading adds forward confirmation: sentiment sits at a one-year low on rising Treasury yields, and wider incentives and price cuts point to continued soft single-family production into year-end. For CRE, the combination reinforces a favorable near-term setup for existing multifamily stock, as thinning deliveries reduce competition for lease-up in markets still absorbing the last cycle's supply. On the single-family side, elevated incentives and a weakening sales outlook suggest ownership will remain out of reach for a larger share of would-be buyers, sustaining renter demand even as overall housing production stays constrained.
The National Association of Realtors released the August 2026 Existing-Home Sales report on September 10, showing sales fell 2.0% month over month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.98 million, down 1.2% year over year, the first reading below 4.0 million since June 2025. Inventory rose 3.2% from July to 1.62 million units, the first time supply has topped 1.6 million since November 2019, pushing months' supply to 4.9, a decade high. The median existing-home price rose 1.6% year over year to $429,100, the 38th straight month of annual gains.
Rising inventory continues to shift leverage toward buyers, with the affordability index climbing to 104.7 from 101.2 a year ago. For single-family and build-to-rent operators, that's roughly a wash: higher mortgage rates keep marginal buyers renting, but growing for-sale supply gives them more room to negotiate than in recent years. Investor and second-home buyer share fell to 15% of transactions from 21%, suggesting some pullback from cash-heavy buyers as the market normalizes.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the August Consumer Price Index on September 11, 2026, showing that headline CPI rose 0.4% on the month, in line with consensus, after 0.1% in July, holding the annual rate at 3.4%. Gasoline rose 3.9% and accounted for more than a third of the headline increase, pushing energy up 2.1% on the month and 16.3% year over year. Shelter rose 0.3%, up from 0.1% in July. Core CPI rose 0.3%, a tenth above consensus, with the annual core rate easing slightly to 2.4% from 2.5%. Airline fares, communication, and used vehicles drove the monthly core gain; motor vehicle insurance and medical care declined.
The report lands amid a sharp energy-driven repricing in rates. Oil rose above $100 a barrel on the escalating US-Iran conflict, diesel hit a record $6 a gallon, and the 10-year Treasury has climbed to approached 5%, its highest since October 2023, pushing mortgage rates above 7%. The hotter core print pushed CME FedWatch odds of a 25 bp hike at the September 16 FOMC meeting to just under 90%, up from 70% Thursday and 50% one month ago. For CRE, that reverses the easing narrative that had prevailed through most of the year: borrowing costs are moving higher rather than lower, cap rate pressure is back in play, and the energy shock adds a new input-cost variable for construction on top of existing tariff pressure.
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
The University of Michigan's preliminary Consumer Sentiment Index for September fell to 47.8 from 51.7 in August, down 13.2% year over year and the second straight monthly decline. Current Economic Conditions slipped to 50.9 from 51.9, while Expectations dropped more sharply to 45.8 from 51.5. Year-ahead inflation expectations jumped to 4.6% from 4.0%, the highest since June, while long-run expectations ticked up to 3.4%. Sentiment is now 16% below February and 13% below a year ago.
The drop reflects rising fuel prices and trade tensions weighing on consumers' near-term outlook, though five-year business condition expectations held steady, suggesting no shift in the long-run view. As a sentiment measure rather than actual spending data, owners should be cautious about reading too much into a single month, but the combination of weaker expectations and firmer inflation views is worth watching for discretionary retail and hospitality demand into the fourth quarter.
News
News to know
The mall sector is outperforming the broader commercial real estate recovery, with limited new supply, resilient consumer spending, and fewer retailer bankruptcies supporting the turnaround. Top owners are replacing vacant department stores with luxury retailers, restaurants, and entertainment tenants less exposed to e-commerce competition. Simon Property Group shares surpassed their 2016 high in July and have outperformed the S&P 500 over the trailing 12 months, while Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield has committed nearly $1 billion this year to take full control of two malls, including Westfield UTC in San Diego. Middle-market malls are participating as well: CBL Properties, which emerged from bankruptcy after the pandemic, has acquired five malls since July 2025 and seen its stock rise 48% year to date. Mall values remain well below decade-ago peaks, and some investors question whether restaurant and entertainment tenants offer durable replacement value if they exit.
Wall Street's Data Center Boom Is Reshaping the Real Estate Bond Market (Bloomberg, 2026-09-14)
A surge in data center deals is reshaping the CMBS market, pushing investors into underwriting risks with little precedent in traditional commercial real estate. About $17 billion of data center CMBS has been issued since the start of 2025, more than triple the prior two years combined, now roughly 8% of new commercial property bond deals. Underwriting challenges include opaque leases with confidential tenants, power and grid access replacing traditional location factors, and the risk that facilities become obsolete within a few years as AI chip requirements evolve. Pricing pressure is emerging: AAA data center spreads now average 1.65 percentage points over their floating-rate benchmark versus 0.93 for office and 1.25 for industrial, and a recent $356 million bond backed by an Illinois facility priced wider than guidance. Citigroup expects issuance to rise roughly 50% next year to $18 billion to $20 billion.
Sun Belt Sunset (Bloomberg, 2026-09-14)
The Trump administration's immigration crackdown is slowing Sun Belt population growth, with Houston as the starkest example. Harris County's population grew less than 1% in the year ended July 1, 2025, as international immigrant arrivals fell more than 40% and net migration into the county dropped nearly 80%, the slowest growth since the pandemic. Twelve of 14 Sun Belt states saw population growth below 1% in 2025, the sharpest regional slowdown since the 1960s outside recessions and the pandemic. Houston metro residential building permit approvals fell 14% in the first seven months of 2026, and pending home sales are falling at the second-fastest rate among major U.S. metros. Texas's civilian workforce contracted in the first half of 2026 for the first time since the pandemic, and internal migration data show more people now moving to Midwest cities like Indianapolis and Columbus instead of Sun Belt destinations.
Inside The Nationwide Jockeying For Opportunity Zones 2.0 (Bisnow, 2026-09-15)
States are finalizing Opportunity Zones 2.0 nominations ahead of a September 28 deadline, with each state capped at 25% of eligible parcels. The national map shrinks roughly 25% to 6,544 tracts from 8,764 under OZ 1.0, with tighter urban income restrictions and deeper rural incentives, including a 30% basis step up after a five year hold versus 10% in urban tracts. OZ 1.0 funds held $112 billion by the end of 2024, with 77% of the original 8,000 tracts receiving some investment, though a GAO survey found most states unsure whether the program improved local outcomes. Texas submitted the maximum 605 tracts after fielding more than 1,200 nominations, while Arizona nominated 125 tracts, including one for a $450 million cobalt processing facility seeking up to $50 million in OZ equity. Malls and data centers have emerged as contenders for designation in several states, with data center nominations drawing community pushback in at least one case.
Fed Rate Hike Has Serious Long-Term Implications for CRE (GlobeSt, 2026-09-16)
Industry sources note the 25-basis-point hike itself was largely priced into deals already in the pipeline, with the bigger concern being the 10-year Treasury yield, which crossed 5% for the first time since 2007 after climbing from roughly 4.63% in late August. Since the 10-year serves as the benchmark for cap rates, discount rates, and long-term mortgage pricing, its move is doing more to drive underwriting, refinancing, and deal timing than the Fed's own rate decision. Yields spiked further following new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference, which offered little additional guidance, compounding uncertainty tied to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, elevated energy prices, and unresolved fiscal and trade policy questions. For CRE, higher debt service costs are expected to pressure purchase price bids downward as buyers work to preserve target cap rates, with the longer-term impact hinging on how long the 10-year holds above 5%.
Lenders are catching up to equity investors in AI adoption for underwriting and portfolio monitoring, according to Laura Krashakova of Smart Capital Center, who attributes the lag to lower downside exposure at typical 50% to 60% loan-to-value ratios and heavier compliance burdens on the debt side. Scrutiny of underwriting practices in private credit is now accelerating adoption, as limited partners weigh technology capabilities before committing capital. Adoption is shifting from data aggregation toward AI agents handling tasks like borrower onboarding and insurance-renewal tracking end-to-end, compressing reporting timelines enough to make monthly or quarterly investor updates viable versus the industry's traditional annual cadence. Krashakova also notes AI is widening deal-review capacity without added headcount and helping smaller investors ground underwriting in data rather than gut instinct.
INSIGHTS Spotlight
Catch the latest research and insights from Altus
Article | The office recovery looks different beneath the headline
Office deal counts look recovered. But large buildings are returning at sharply lower prices, revealing a market that has reset, not rebounded.
Podcast | Labor data diverges, data centers dominate Beige Book, CRE implications from bond rout
In the latest CRE Exchange, Cole Perry and Omar Eltorai work through a data-heavy week: construction spending, three labor releases, and a full round of PMI readings.
Important dates
Upcoming data releases and events
Data releases (Times in EDT)
Wednesday, September 23
9:45AM: US Flash Manufacturing PMI (Sep)
9:45AM: US Flash Services PMI (Sep)
Thursday, September 24
8:30AM: Weekly Jobless Claims (Sep 19)
10:00AM: New Home Sales (Aug)
11:00AM: Kansas City Fed Survey (Sep)
Friday, September 25
8:30AM: Durable Goods (Aug)
10:00AM: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment – Final (Sep)
Upcoming Industry Events
September 23–26: CORFAC Fall Summit 2026 (Chicago, IL)
About our research team
Omar Eltorai
Senior Director of Research
Altus Group
Omar Eltorai is a Research Director at Altus Group. With more than a decade of experience in the industry in investment management and financing roles,
Omar's focus is on macro, capital and market trends affecting the US CRE market. Beyond regularly authoring articles and reports, his commentary and analysis has been featured in various media publications, including: Wall Street Journal, Globe Street, and Yahoo! Finance.
Cole Perry
Associate Director of Research
Altus Group
Cole Perry is a Associate Director of Research with Altus Group's Research team. In this role, Cole delivers key insights into macroeconomics, capital markets, and the broader commercial real estate sector.
Cole boasts a rich background in Commercial Real Estate analytics with previous roles at CompStak and Brixmor Property Group. He holds dual M.S. degrees from Columbia University in Urban Planning and Real Estate Development.
Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this newsletter are solely those of the authors and are not endorsed by Altus Group Limited, its affiliates and its related entities (collectively “Altus Group”). This publication has been prepared for general guidance on matters of interest only and does not constitute professional advice or services of Altus Group. You should not act upon the information contained in this publication without obtaining specific professional advice. No representation or warranty (express or implied) is given as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in this publication, or the suitability of the information for a particular purpose. To the extent permitted by law, Altus Group does not accept or assume any liability, responsibility or duty of care for any consequences of you or anyone else acting, or refraining to act, in reliance on the information contained in this publication or for any decision based on it. The distribution of this publication to you does not create, extend or revive a client relationship between Altus Group and you or any other person or entity. This publication, or any part thereof, may not be reproduced or distributed in any form for any purpose without the express written consent of Altus Group.
Resources
Latest insights
Sep 10, 2026
Labor data diverges, data centers dominate Beige Book, CRE implications from bond rout
