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CRE This Week - What's impacting the United States market?

Week of May 26, 2025


Welcome to the latest edition of CRE This Week, curated by Altus Group’s US research team.

Our team has handpicked pertinent and noteworthy market indicators, articles, original research, and significant industry dates that are critical to the US commercial real estate sector. We understand that your time is valuable, so we're excited to deliver research that helps you stay informed and saves you some time each Monday morning.

For more key economic indicators that matter to commercial real estate, see Top Indicators by Major Asset Type.

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Economic print


Macro economic factors impacting CRE

S&P Flash PMI


S&P Global released flash PMI data on May 22, 2025, showing signs of modest improvement in business activity. The Composite Output Index rose to 52.1 (from 50.6 in April), a two-month high. The Services PMI reached 52.3 (up from 50.8), and the Manufacturing Output Index climbed to 50.7 (from 49.6). The Manufacturing PMI jumped to 52.3 (from 50.2), its strongest reading since June 2022. However, the data also showed the steepest rise in output prices since August 2022, largely driven by tariff-related cost pressures.





May’s PMI data paints a mixed picture for commercial real estate. Activity rebounded modestly across services and manufacturing, and confidence improved following a pause in tariff hikes. Yet underlying weakness in employment and export demand, paired with sharply rising input and output prices, points to mounting cost pressures that may weigh on CRE occupiers. The largest inventory build-up in the survey’s 18-year history suggests firms are bracing for further disruptions, which could slow decision-making on expansions or leasing. Owners of logistics, flex industrial, and suburban office space may see tenant hesitancy grow if tariffs return after July, while price-sensitive retail and hospitality assets remain vulnerable to pass-through inflation and softer consumer demand.

Existing Home Sales and New Home Sales


The National Association of Realtors reported on May 22 that sales of existing single-family homes fell 0.5% month-over-month in April to a seasonally adjusted level of 4.0 million. Sales were also down 2.0% year-over-year. The median sale price for an existing single-family home grew 1.8% year-over-year to $414,000.

The US Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development reported on May 23 that sales of new single-family homes rose 10.9% month-over-month in April to a seasonally adjusted annual level of 743,000. Sales were up 3.3% year-over-year. The median sale price for a new single-family home slid 2.0% year-over-year to $407,000.


Recent bond market volatility has pushed yields higher, with the 10-year Treasury reaching 4.58% as of May 22. The move reflects renewed investor concerns about inflation and diminished confidence in U.S. debt following Moody’s credit downgrade on May 16. As a result, mortgage rates have climbed back toward 7.0%, their highest level in over three months, weighing on single-family home affordability and limiting resale inventory.

While new homes are absorbing some of the displaced demand, elevated borrowing costs are dampening activity here as well. These dynamics continue to support the multifamily sector, where higher mortgage rates and limited for-sale inventory are keeping more households in the rental market. Additionally, rising construction costs could restrict future multifamily supply, a benefit to incumbent owner-operators.





CRE This Week Economic Print

News


News to know



Fed's Williams says he has not seen any big move out of US assets, monetary policy in good place | Reuters | May 19, 2025

New York Federal Reserve President John Williams stated that there has been no significant shift away from U.S. assets despite recent economic uncertainties. He emphasized that the current monetary policy remains appropriately calibrated, with the economy showing resilience. Williams acknowledged the challenges posed by volatile tariffs and policy-driven uncertainties but suggested that clearer economic insights would emerge beyond June or July.



A fire sale of Portland’s largest office tower shows how far the city has fallen | Wall Street Journal | May 19, 2025

Portland’s U.S. Bancorp Tower, once a premier downtown office asset, is now more than 50 percent vacant and listed for sale at roughly $70 million, more than 80 percent below its 2015 value. The building’s decline reflects broader struggles in the city’s commercial real estate market, where crime, drug use, and persistent office vacancies have dampened recovery. With a first-quarter vacancy rate of 35 percent, the highest among major U.S. CBDs, Portland lags national office trends. Though public safety has recently improved and new leadership is considered pro-business, companies continue to leave, and the city is now focused more on tenant retention than new investment.



Chicago investment firm raises $1.2 billion for real estate fund | Bloomberg | May 19, 2025

A Chicago-based investment firm has successfully raised $1.2 billion for a new real estate fund focused on acquiring and developing properties across various sectors. The fund aims to capitalize on emerging opportunities in the real estate market, particularly in areas showing signs of recovery and growth. The firm's strategy includes targeting assets that can deliver strong returns through active management and value-add initiatives.



National retail fundamentals remain robust, even as uncertainty takes a toll | Commercial Observer | May 20, 2025

Despite economic uncertainties, the U.S. retail sector demonstrates resilience with strong fundamentals. According to insights from JLL and the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC), consumer spending remains steady, and retailers continue to adapt to changing market dynamics. Total retail vacancy stayed level at 4.1 percent compared with last quarter, according to a recent market report from JLL, ahead of the annual Innovating Commerce Serving Communities conference in Las Vegas (JLL’s report was more bullish compared with a report released by Cushman & Wakefield last week). General retail centers — defined by JLL as freestanding, single-tenant commercial buildings — had the lowest vacancy of all retail subclasses with 2.4 percent this past quarter. Malls were the worst offender with an average vacancy rate of 8.7 percent.



Manhattan's trophy office owners won't let tariffs rain on their parade | Bisnow | May 21, 202

Despite economic uncertainty and rising tariffs on construction materials, Manhattan’s top-tier office landlords remain confident. At Bisnow’s 2025 New York Office and Workplace event, executives from firms like Vornado, Savanna, and Columbia Property Trust acknowledged cost pressures but emphasized strong tenant demand. Some reported 2 to 6 percent increases in build-out costs and are turning to strategies like sourcing domestic materials and prefabrication to manage exposure. The high end of the market is especially tight, with Class-A leasing reaching its highest level since 2019 and top-tier vacancy falling to 9.2 percent. However, Class-B and C properties continue to struggle, keeping citywide vacancy elevated at 15.5 percent. Industry leaders warned that further uncertainty from tariff policy could slow deals but noted that strong demand and constrained supply suggest rents may rise in the months ahead.



Trump floats a public offering for Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac | Bloomberg | May 22, 2025

President Trump announced he is seriously considering taking Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac public, potentially ending their government conservatorship that began during the 2008 financial crisis. The mortgage giants have returned to profitability, and a public offering could raise up to $382 billion, making it one of the largest in history. The administration will consult with key officials, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and FHFA Director Bill Pulte. However, significant challenges remain, including structuring the offering and maintaining investor confidence in the government guarantee behind mortgage-backed securities. Analysts warn that if government backing is reduced, mortgage rates could rise. Shares of Fannie and Freddie surged following the announcement.



Colliers sees early signs of a fresh investment cycle emerging | GlobeSt | May 22, 2025

A new Colliers report signals that commercial real estate values may have bottomed out, suggesting the early stages of a recovery. Retail and industrial sectors are leading the rebound, with select assets seeing double-digit growth. Multifamily is recovering modestly, while office and hospitality continue to lag. Liquidity remains limited for large office deals, though distressed sales remain rare. Colliers sees renewed interest from private capital, particularly in markets like New York, Boston, and San Francisco. Investors are weighing two paths: locking in fixed-rate financing now or waiting in anticipation of a recession. Colliers views the current moment as a favorable entry point for opportunistic buyers.


CRE This Week Market Research

Research Spotlight


Catch the latest insights from the Altus team


Report | Q1 2025 US CRE Investment and Transactions Quarterly

Q1 2025 US CRE investment and transaction activity continued to show signs of contraction, while pricing trends across several sectors signaled resilience.

Total transaction volume declined sharply both quarter-over-quarter (-22.3%) and year-over-year (-19.0%), but price per square foot rose year-over-year for four of the six major property sectors, and twelve of the fifteen property subsectors being tracked.

For a closer look at property-level price trends, sector-specific activity, and how current deal volume compares to historical transaction activity, read our full Q1 2025 Investment and Transactions Quarterly report



Article | Grocery-Anchored Hubs Continue to Draw Investment as Tariffs Ding Other Retail | Commercial Observer, May 20, 2025

Cole Perry, Associate Director of Research, was recently featured in Commercial Observer discussing how sales-tied rent structures can help grocery-anchored landlords offset tariff impacts. Amid retail headwinds, the piece highlights continued investor interest in grocery centers due to strong fundamentals, low vacancy, and steady demand.

Read the article



Podcast | EP62 - Beyond the beach: Strategic multifamily investing in Florida

Marc Hershberg, Managing Partner and CEO at Topaz Capital, joins us to unpack the real story behind Florida’s multifamily market. While headlines tend to spotlight Florida’s coastal glamour, Marc takes us beyond the beach by highlighting why inland markets, workforce housing, and Class B assets are where the smart money is headed. We discuss the strategic importance of inland geography, the philosophy of "market-first, deal-second", the risks of climate-driven insurance volatility, and how foreign capital is approaching the Sunshine State.

Tune in for a grounded, forward-looking conversation you won't want to miss


CRE This Week Upcoming

Important dates


Upcoming data releases and events

Data releases (Times in EST)


Tuesday, May 27

  • 8:30AM: Durable Goods Orders, Data Release

  • 9:00AM: S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index, Data Release

  • 10:00AM: Consumer Confidence, Data Release


Thursday, May 29

  • 8:30AM: Q1 2025 GDP (First Revision), Data Release


Friday, May 30

  • 8:30AM: PCE Price Index, Data Release

  • 8:30AM: Advance Wholesale Inventories, Data Release

  • 10:00AM: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Data Release


Upcoming Industry Events


May 30 – May 31: AREUEA National Conference

June 2 – June 5: NAREIT REIT Week Investor Conference

June 2 – June 5: IMN Mezzanine Financing and High Yield Debt Conference

June 3 – June 4: Realcomm

June 4 – June 5: NAIOP I.CON East

June 9 – June 11: CREFC Annual Conference

June 16 – June 19: NAREE Annual Conference

June 28: BOMA International Expo













About our research team

People - Omar Eltorai's Profile
Omar Eltorai

Research Director

Altus Group

Altus Research

CRE Exchange Podcast

Omar Eltorai is a Research Director at Altus Group. With more than a decade of experience in the industry in investment management and financing roles,

Omar's focus is on macro, capital and market trends affecting the US CRE market. Beyond regularly authoring articles and reports, his commentary and analysis has been featured in various media publications, including: Wall Street Journal, Globe Street, and Yahoo! Finance.

Contact us
Cole Perry's Profile
Cole Perry

Associate Director of Research

Altus Group

Altus Research

CRE Exchange Podcast

Cole Perry is a Associate Director of Research with Altus Group's Research team. In this role, Cole delivers key insights into macroeconomics, capital markets, and the broader commercial real estate sector.

Cole boasts a rich background in Commercial Real Estate analytics with previous roles at CompStak and Brixmor Property Group. He holds dual M.S. degrees from Columbia University in Urban Planning and Real Estate Development.

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Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this newsletter are solely those of the authors and are not endorsed by Altus Group Limited, its affiliates and its related entities (collectively “Altus Group”). This publication has been prepared for general guidance on matters of interest only and does not constitute professional advice or services of Altus Group. You should not act upon the information contained in this publication without obtaining specific professional advice. No representation or warranty (express or implied) is given as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in this publication, or the suitability of the information for a particular purpose. To the extent permitted by law, Altus Group does not accept or assume any liability, responsibility or duty of care for any consequences of you or anyone else acting, or refraining to act, in reliance on the information contained in this publication or for any decision based on it. The distribution of this publication to you does not create, extend or revive a client relationship between Altus Group and you or any other person or entity. This publication, or any part thereof, may not be reproduced or distributed in any form for any purpose without the express written consent of Altus Group.

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