CRE This Week - What's impacting the United States market?
August 25, 2025 - US commercial real estate news, macroeconomic indicators and market analysis.
Week of August 25, 2025
Welcome to the latest edition of CRE This Week, curated by Altus Group’s US research team.
Our team has handpicked pertinent and noteworthy market indicators, articles, original research, and significant industry dates that are critical to the US commercial real estate sector. We understand that your time is valuable, so we're excited to deliver research that helps you stay informed and saves you some time each Monday morning.
For more key economic indicators that matter to commercial real estate, see Top Indicators by Major Asset Type.
Economic print
Macro economic factors impacting CRE
The U.S. Census Bureau released the New Residential Construction Report for July on August 19, reporting that housing starts reached a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 1,428,000 units, marking a 5.2% increase from June and a 12.9% gain year-over-year. The growth was driven predominantly by the multifamily sector: starts for buildings with five or more units surged to 470,000 units (SAAR), the highest level since May 2023. Meanwhile, single-family starts also rose, though more modestly, to 939,000 units, up 2.8% month-over-month. On the permits side, total building permits fell 2.8% to 1,354,000, the lowest level in five years, despite a slight uptick (+0.5%) in single-family authorizations.
The sharp rebound in multifamily starts paints a picture of renewed strength in rental housing, but other data points raise serious doubts about whether this momentum is real. Industry economists have voiced concern that the Census Bureau’s methodology may be overstating activity, since it relies on a limited sample of permit holders rather than tracking actual project progress. Private-sector datasets, which capture contracting and construction stages more directly, instead point to a slowdown consistent with what developers are experiencing in an environment of high interest rates and tighter credit.
S&P Global released the U.S. Flash Purchasing Managers Index for August on August 21. Composite PMI rose to 55.4 in August, up from 55.1 in July, solidly signaling continued expansion in private‑sector activity. The manufacturing PMI saw a notable rebound, surging to 53.3 – it’s highest level since May 2022 and well above July’s 49.8. By contrast, the services PMI eased slightly to 55.4 from 55.7. S&P Global’s chief economist, Chris Williamson, estimated that these figures point to economic growth running at an annualized rate of approximately 2.5%, a meaningful improvement over the roughly 1.3% pace seen during the first half of the year.
Rebounding strength in manufacturing bodes well for industrial and logistics properties as higher output drives space needs. The slight cooling in services, while still solidly above 50, points to steady office and retail demand with some caution. Rising input costs, partly tariff-driven, could pressure margins and lead occupiers to rethink leasing and cost structures. Overall, the strong flash PMI signals a favorable near-term outlook for CRE, led by industrial, though inflationary pressures warrant careful tenant and lease management.
On August 21, 2025, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that existing home sales rose 2.0 percent month-over-month in July, reaching a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.01 million units. The median sales price ticked up slightly (+0.2 percent year-over-year) to $422,400, marking the highest July median on record, but signaling a meaningful slowdown in price acceleration. Inventory also climbed to 1.55 million units, the most available homes since May 2020, translating to a 4.6-month supply.
Existing-home sale trends send a mixed but important signal for multifamily developers and investors. With mortgage rates still in the mid-6 percent range, sluggish resale activity is limiting mobility and reinforcing rental demand. Slightly lower rates and rising inventory may provide some relief, but the continued underrepresentation of first-time buyers (just 28 percent compared to a long-term norm of around 40 percent) underscores how affordability pressures are keeping households in the rental market longer.
News
News to know
JPMorgan Chase is set to move thousands of employees into its new $3 billion headquarters at 270 Park Avenue, a 2.5 million-square-foot tower that opens officially in October. The 60-story project, more than six years in the making, marks one of the boldest bets yet on New York’s office recovery and underscores the city’s resurgence as the nation’s leading business hub. The move signals confidence not just in Midtown’s staying power but in the broader rebound of office demand after years of post-pandemic uncertainty.
A proposal to shift the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ monthly jobs report to a quarterly release has rattled the commercial real estate industry, where timely employment data is critical for leasing, underwriting, and investment decisions. Industry leaders warn that reducing frequency would inject more uncertainty into an already fragile deal environment, especially for sectors like hotels and offices that track labor trends closely. While some investors supplement BLS data with private sources such as ADP and Placer.ai, most view the transparency of monthly jobs reports as a cornerstone of U.S. market stability. As MSCI’s Jim Costello put it, “People act when there’s clarity — if you remove clarity, you reduce action.”
Fewer people are moving and it’s affecting CRE | GlobeSt, August 18, 2025
New Census data shows Americans are moving less than ever, with mobility rates falling across every generation since 2005. Just 7.8% of the population changed residences in 2023, the lowest share since 1948. Rising housing costs, job uncertainty, and locked-in low mortgage rates are discouraging relocation, deepening divides in both housing and labor markets. For CRE, this stagnation dampens demand for new housing construction, limits multifamily turnover, and makes it harder for businesses to recruit talent across geographies — factors that could weigh on growth in markets that once relied on population inflows to drive expansion.
Have we finally hit the wall of maturities? | Commercial Property Executive, August 20, 2025
Nearly $950 billion in CRE debt is set to mature in 2025, and while lenders have so far extended many troubled loans, rising delinquencies and tighter refinancing conditions are creating mounting pressure. Debt funds have filled some of the void left by banks but are beginning to feel liquidity strains as defaults increase, while special servicers are taking a measured approach to CMBS workouts rather than rushing to foreclosures. With higher rates, stricter lending standards, and lower property values forcing many borrowers to inject fresh equity, owners are facing difficult decisions between recapitalizing or selling into a softer market.
Office tower by NYC’s Hudson Yards sells at over 50% discount | Bloomberg, August 21, 2025
An 18-story office tower at 440 Ninth Ave. near Hudson Yards has sold for just over $100 million, less than half its $269 million purchase price in 2018. The short-sale, approved by lender MetLife and brokered by CBRE, underscores the steep drop in U.S. office values, which have fallen 37% since 2022 according to Green Street. The deal highlights the widening gap between older properties struggling with high vacancies and capital costs, and top-tier Manhattan offices near transit hubs, which continue to attract corporate tenants.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled the possibility of upcoming rate cuts in remarks at Jackson Hole, citing trade, immigration, and tax policy uncertainty as risks to the economic outlook. While rates remain 100 basis points lower than a year ago, Powell noted that policy is still restrictive and may need adjustment. The Fed’s next decision is set for Sept. 27. For CRE borrowers, even the hint of easing offers relief after two years of aggressive hikes that pushed floating-rate debt into distress. A potential cut would lower borrowing costs and improve refinancing conditions, though Powell emphasized the Fed’s independence from political pressures as President Trump continues to push for faster reductions.
INSIGHTS Spotlight
Catch the latest research and insights from Altus
Report | Q2 2025 US CRE Investment and Transactions Quarterly
US commercial real estate pricing gained ground in Q2 2025 despite mixed transaction activity.
While the number of traded properties declined year over year, the median price per square foot rose 13.9%, with multifamily leading annual price growth.
Insight | CMBS issuance remains strong despite elevated distress
CMBS issuance hit $59.5B in the first half of 2025, the strongest start since 2007. Yet delinquencies are on the rise, leaving many to ask: can the market really boom while some borrowers fall behind?
KBRA’s Andrew Foster, MSRE, CRE® shares insights on issuance trends, loan performance, and what lenders and borrowers should prepare for in the year ahead.
Important dates
Upcoming data releases and events
Data releases (Times in EST)
Monday, August 25
10:00AM: New Home Sales, Data Release
Tuesday, August 26
10:00AM: Consumer Confidence, Data Release
Thursday, August 28
8:30AM: Q2 2025 GDP (First Revision), Data Release
Friday, August 29
8:30AM: PCE Price Index, Data Release
About our research team
Omar Eltorai
Research Director
Altus Group
Omar Eltorai is a Research Director at Altus Group. With more than a decade of experience in the industry in investment management and financing roles,
Omar's focus is on macro, capital and market trends affecting the US CRE market. Beyond regularly authoring articles and reports, his commentary and analysis has been featured in various media publications, including: Wall Street Journal, Globe Street, and Yahoo! Finance.
Cole Perry
Associate Director of Research
Altus Group
Cole Perry is a Associate Director of Research with Altus Group's Research team. In this role, Cole delivers key insights into macroeconomics, capital markets, and the broader commercial real estate sector.
Cole boasts a rich background in Commercial Real Estate analytics with previous roles at CompStak and Brixmor Property Group. He holds dual M.S. degrees from Columbia University in Urban Planning and Real Estate Development.
Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this newsletter are solely those of the authors and are not endorsed by Altus Group Limited, its affiliates and its related entities (collectively “Altus Group”). This publication has been prepared for general guidance on matters of interest only and does not constitute professional advice or services of Altus Group. You should not act upon the information contained in this publication without obtaining specific professional advice. No representation or warranty (express or implied) is given as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in this publication, or the suitability of the information for a particular purpose. To the extent permitted by law, Altus Group does not accept or assume any liability, responsibility or duty of care for any consequences of you or anyone else acting, or refraining to act, in reliance on the information contained in this publication or for any decision based on it. The distribution of this publication to you does not create, extend or revive a client relationship between Altus Group and you or any other person or entity. This publication, or any part thereof, may not be reproduced or distributed in any form for any purpose without the express written consent of Altus Group.
Resources
Latest insights
Aug 14, 2025