CRE This Week - What's impacting the United States market?
March 30, 2026 - US commercial real estate news, macroeconomic indicators and market analysis.
Week of March 30, 2026
Welcome to the latest edition of CRE This Week, curated by Altus Group’s US research team.
Our team has handpicked pertinent and noteworthy market indicators, articles, original research, and significant industry dates that are critical to the US commercial real estate sector. We understand that your time is valuable, so we're excited to deliver research that helps you stay informed and saves you some time each Monday morning.
For more key economic indicators that matter to commercial real estate, see Top Indicators by Major Asset Type.
Economic print
Macro economic factors impacting CRE
The US Census Bureau released the January 2026 Value of Construction Put in Place report on March 23. Total construction spending came in at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,190.4 billion, down 0.3% from a revised December estimate of $2,197.6 billion and missing the consensus estimate of a 0.1% rise. Private construction fell 0.6% to $1,661.2 billion. Private nonresidential spending slipped 0.4% to $728.2 billion, with declines recorded in nine of 16 subcategories. Manufacturing construction fell 2.0% for the month and is now down 15.0% year-over-year and 18% from its mid-2024 peak. Data centers were the lone notable bright spot, posting another 2% monthly gain and a 31.3% jump year-over-year. Private office construction was down 13.0% year-over-year. Public construction rose 0.6%, led by a 3.3% increase in highway spending.
Private nonresidential construction has now contracted for four consecutive months and sits 8% below its December 2023 all-time high. The weakness is broadening: manufacturing is unwinding its post-CHIPS Act surge, growth in conventional office construction remains deeply negative, and tariff uncertainty on steel, aluminum, copper, and lumber is making project feasibility harder to underwrite across industrial, retail, and institutional categories. For CRE, the sustained pullback in private nonresidential spending is a supply-side constraint with mixed implications: tighter pipelines in industrial and office should help stabilize vacancy in markets where demand is holding, but the near-term drag on construction lending activity and development fee income is real. Data center construction remains the exception, though grid constraints and supply chain bottlenecks are limiting how broadly that momentum can translate into new starts.
S&P Global released the March 2026 flash PMI data on March 24. The Composite Output Index fell to 51.4 from 51.9 in February, an 11-month low, capping the economy's weakest quarter since Q4 2023. The Services Business Activity Index slipped to 51.1, also an 11-month low, as new business slowed and export sales declined. The Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.4, a two-month high, with new orders at their fastest pace in five months and export orders stabilizing after eight months of decline. Input costs rose at the sharpest rate in ten months and selling prices increased at the fastest pace since August 2022, both driven by energy price spikes and supply disruptions tied to the outbreak of war in the Middle East. S&P Global's chief economist flagged a growing stagflation risk, with price gauges pointing to consumer inflation reaccelerating toward 4% and Q1 GDP tracking around 1.3% annualized.
The services slowdown is a headwind for office-using tenants, hospitality, and experiential retail, where confidence drives demand more directly than in goods-producing sectors. The manufacturing upturn offers some near-term support for industrial and logistics space, though elevated input costs keep the outlook uneven. The more consequential signal for CRE capital markets is the price spike: if inflation is tracking back toward 4%, the Fed's window to cut rates narrows further, borrowing costs stay elevated, and cap rate compression remains limited. Longer Treasury yields are unlikely to fall meaningfully in this environment, keeping the bid-ask gap in transaction markets wide.
The University of Michigan's final Consumer Sentiment Index for March, released March 27, came in at 53.3, down 5.8% from February's 56.6 and 6.5% below March 2025 levels, marking the lowest reading since December 2025. Current Conditions slipped modestly to 55.8 from 56.6, while the Expectations Index fell more sharply, dropping 8.7% to 51.7. Declines were broad-based across age and political affiliation, with middle- and higher-income consumers and those with equity holdings seeing the steepest drops. Roughly two-thirds of interviews were completed after the start of U.S. military conflict in Iran, and the pre- versus post-conflict split in the data is stark: short-run business conditions expectations fell from roughly 65 to 51, while short-run inflation expectations jumped from about 3.0% to 4.5%. Long-run business conditions and inflation expectations were more stable, declining and edging up modestly, respectively. Year-ahead inflation expectations for the full month rose to 3.8% from 3.4% in February, the largest single-month increase since April 2025, while long-run expectations edged down to 3.2%.
The sharp deterioration in near-term outlook and personal finance expectations is a meaningful signal for consumer-facing property sectors. Hospitality, discretionary retail, and experiential assets face elevated near-term risk if energy prices persist or the conflict broadens. The relative stability in long-run expectations suggests consumers are not yet pricing in a prolonged shock, but that shifts quickly if the Iran situation extends or energy cost pass-through accelerates into broader inflation. For CRE capital markets, year-ahead inflation expectations at 3.8% remain well above the pre-pandemic 2.3-3.0% range, reducing the odds of near-term Fed rate relief and keeping borrowing costs elevated. Necessity-based retail and Class A multifamily remain better insulated; lenders and investors in discretionary and hospitality assets should monitor consumer spending data closely over the next 30 to 60 days.
News
News to know
News to know
Private credit's pullback could reignite CRE investment cycle | GlobeSt, March 23, 2026
Private credit is showing signs of stress, and some analysts expect capital to rotate toward commercial real estate as a result. Blackstone's BCRED faced roughly $3.7 billion in gross redemptions, and high-profile defaults including auto-parts maker First Brands and subprime lender Tricolor Holdings have amplified concerns about the sector's credit quality. A Hines analysis using MSCI-Burgiss and NCREIF data projected up to 60% cyclical upside in CRE valuations if prices revert to historical norms, with current levels still well below 2022 peaks. Early signs of reallocation are emerging: non-traded REIT fundraising rose to $593 million in January from $416 million in November, according to Stanger Investment Banking. Whether the rotation proves durable will depend on how broadly private credit stress spreads and whether CRE capital markets can absorb new inflows without compressing returns prematurely.
US sale-leaseback volume rebounds, signals “growing momentum” | Connect CRE, March 23, 2026
US sale-leaseback volume rose 18% in 2025 to approximately $14.4 billion across 714 transactions, the first year since 2022 to exceed 700 deals, according to SLB Capital Advisors. Activity was back-weighted, with $4.71 billion closing in Q4 alone as M&A markets recovered and corporations increasingly used owned real estate as a financing source. Notable transactions included the $510 million sale-leaseback of Sotheby's Manhattan headquarters. For CRE, the rebound reflects growing corporate appetite for balance sheet optimization and points to continued net lease deal flow in 2026, particularly if M&A activity sustains its momentum.
CMBS spreads have widened as record issuance volume, the Iran war, and AI-related concerns about office valuations weigh on investor appetite. Barclays projects $110 billion in SASB issuance for 2026, up from $91 billion last year, but February's surge pushed AAA spreads wider. Five-year conduit deals pricing in the low 70 basis points range before the conflict began are now clearing at 82 basis points over Treasurys. Total private-label CMBS issuance through March 17 reached $72.4 billion, up 17% year over year, with CLO volume nearly doubling to $12.5 billion while SASB and conduit volumes declined. CREFC CEO Lisa Pendergast described investors as more discriminating deal-to-deal rather than broadly fatigued, with deals still clearing but taking longer. For CRE borrowers, wider spreads add to refinancing friction at a time when a large volume of loans are approaching maturity.
Army taps private capital to build data centers on its bases | Bloomberg, March 26, 2026
The US Army selected Carlyle Group and KKR-backed CyrusOne to develop data centers at Fort Bliss, Texas, and Dugway Proving Ground, Utah, under 50-year ground leases, with each project expected to involve billions in private investment. The Army provides underused land in exchange for computing capacity, removing construction costs from federal budgets. For CRE, the structure mirrors a long-term ground lease with a mission-critical tenant, extending institutional data center demand into defense-adjacent markets outside traditional commercial hubs.
New Census Bureau estimates show US population grew just 0.5% between July 2024 and June 2025, the weakest pace since the pandemic, with more than half of counties seeing growth slow or reverse. Los Angeles County lost nearly 54,000 residents, while Miami-Dade, Queens, and several California counties also declined. Growth remains concentrated in Texas suburbs, Greater Phoenix, Seattle, and mid-sized Sun Belt metros including Ocala, Myrtle Beach, and Huntsville, which are expanding above 2.5%. The Census Bureau attributed much of the slowdown to declining international migration under current immigration policy. For CRE, the data reinforces a bifurcated demand outlook: gateway markets face softening household formation and rental demand, while lower-cost, high-growth secondary markets continue to attract residents and support multifamily and retail absorption.
INSIGHTS Spotlight
Catch the latest research and insights from Altus
Podcast | Hot inflation, soft growth, and a CRE market caught in the middle
What are more than 100 economists saying about the 2026 outlook, and what does it mean for CRE?
On the latest CRE Exchange, Omar Eltorai and Cole Perry walk through the February PPI release, the March FOMC decision, January new home sales data, and findings from the Philly Fed, FOMC SEP, and Wall Street Journal economic surveys to give the CRE community a read on where things stand.
Insight article | US commercial real estate debt markets close 2025 on a stronger note
US CRE borrowers are seeing real financing relief for the first time in years.
All-in debt costs fell an average of 66 basis points year-over-year in Q4 2025, across all property types, measured from over 1,500 quotes in our latest Debt Capital Markets Survey.
Term SOFR dropped to 3.99%, down 69 basis points year-over-year (and down 34 basis points quarter-over-quarter)
Year-over-year, all product types posted spread compression
Lender competition picked up: borrowers received an average of 5.2 competitive quotes, up from 4.7 a year ago
Not every asset class moved in the same direction, and questions remain around how yields and spreads hold as trade, fiscal, and geopolitical uncertainty plays out in 2026.
Research contribution | Why prices for D.C.-area retail properties are spiking right now
Altus Group's Research Team provided key data for a Bisnow report on surging D.C.-area retail property prices. The figures show national retail prices rose 12.3% per square foot between 2024 and 2025, while the D.C. market outpaced that significantly with a 27.2% jump, a dramatic reversal from a 30% decline the prior year. Brokers attribute the spike to a flood of new investors competing for limited grocery-anchored product, with firms like Federal Realty making major acquisitions and CBRE's D.C. team managing roughly $3.3B in active listings.
Important dates
Upcoming data releases and events
Data releases (Times in EST)
Tuesday, March 31
9:00AM: S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index (Jan.)
9:45AM: Chicago Business Barometer (Mar.)
10:00AM: Job Openings (Feb.)
10:00AM: Consumer Confidence (Mar.)
Wednesday, April 1
8:30AM: U.S. Retail Sales (Feb.)
8:30AM: ADP Jobs (Mar.)
9:45AM: S&P Final U.S. Manufacturing PMI (Mar.)
10:00AM: ISM Manufacturing (Mar.)
10:00AM: Business Inventories (Jan.)
Thursday, April 2
8:30AM: U.S. Trade Deficit (Feb.)
Friday, April 3
8:30AM: U.S. Employment Report (Mar.)
9:45AM: S&P Final U.S. Services PMI (Mar.)
Upcoming industry events
April 7 – April 9: IREM PropertyCon (Austin, TX)
April 14 – April 17: SIOR Spring Event (Palm Springs, CA)
April 19 – April 23: CCIM Spring Forum (Philadelphia, PA)
About our research team
Omar Eltorai
Senior Director of Research
Altus Group
Omar Eltorai is a Research Director at Altus Group. With more than a decade of experience in the industry in investment management and financing roles,
Omar's focus is on macro, capital and market trends affecting the US CRE market. Beyond regularly authoring articles and reports, his commentary and analysis has been featured in various media publications, including: Wall Street Journal, Globe Street, and Yahoo! Finance.
Cole Perry
Associate Director of Research
Altus Group
Cole Perry is a Associate Director of Research with Altus Group's Research team. In this role, Cole delivers key insights into macroeconomics, capital markets, and the broader commercial real estate sector.
Cole boasts a rich background in Commercial Real Estate analytics with previous roles at CompStak and Brixmor Property Group. He holds dual M.S. degrees from Columbia University in Urban Planning and Real Estate Development.
Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this newsletter are solely those of the authors and are not endorsed by Altus Group Limited, its affiliates and its related entities (collectively “Altus Group”). This publication has been prepared for general guidance on matters of interest only and does not constitute professional advice or services of Altus Group. You should not act upon the information contained in this publication without obtaining specific professional advice. No representation or warranty (express or implied) is given as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in this publication, or the suitability of the information for a particular purpose. To the extent permitted by law, Altus Group does not accept or assume any liability, responsibility or duty of care for any consequences of you or anyone else acting, or refraining to act, in reliance on the information contained in this publication or for any decision based on it. The distribution of this publication to you does not create, extend or revive a client relationship between Altus Group and you or any other person or entity. This publication, or any part thereof, may not be reproduced or distributed in any form for any purpose without the express written consent of Altus Group.
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